Global Mortality From Firearms, 1990-2016.

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ID: 75328
2018
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Abstract
Understanding global variation in firearm mortality rates could guide prevention policies and interventions.To estimate mortality due to firearm injury deaths from 1990 to 2016 in 195 countries and territories.This study used deidentified aggregated data including 13 812 location-years of vital registration data to generate estimates of levels and rates of death by age-sex-year-location. The proportion of suicides in which a firearm was the lethal means was combined with an estimate of per capita gun ownership in a revised proxy measure used to evaluate the relationship between availability or access to firearms and firearm injury deaths.Firearm ownership and access.Cause-specific deaths by age, sex, location, and year.Worldwide, it was estimated that 251 000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 195 000-276 000) people died from firearm injuries in 2016, with 6 countries (Brazil, United States, Mexico, Colombia, Venezuela, and Guatemala) accounting for 50.5% (95% UI, 42.2%-54.8%) of those deaths. In 1990, there were an estimated 209 000 (95% UI, 172 000 to 235 000) deaths from firearm injuries. Globally, the majority of firearm injury deaths in 2016 were homicides (64.0% [95% UI, 54.2%-68.0%]; absolute value, 161 000 deaths [95% UI, 107 000-182 000]); additionally, 27% were firearm suicide deaths (67 500 [95% UI, 55 400-84 100]) and 9% were unintentional firearm deaths (23 000 [95% UI, 18 200-24 800]). From 1990 to 2016, there was no significant decrease in the estimated global age-standardized firearm homicide rate (-0.2% [95% UI, -0.8% to 0.2%]). Firearm suicide rates decreased globally at an annualized rate of 1.6% (95% UI, 1.1-2.0), but in 124 of 195 countries and territories included in this study, these levels were either constant or significant increases were estimated. There was an annualized decrease of 0.9% (95% UI, 0.5%-1.3%) in the global rate of age-standardized firearm deaths from 1990 to 2016. Aggregate firearm injury deaths in 2016 were highest among persons aged 20 to 24 years (for men, an estimated 34 700 deaths [95% UI, 24 900-39 700] and for women, an estimated 3580 deaths [95% UI, 2810-4210]). Estimates of the number of firearms by country were associated with higher rates of firearm suicide (P < .001; R2 = 0.21) and homicide (P < .001; R2 = 0.35).This study estimated between 195 000 and 276 000 firearm injury deaths globally in 2016, the majority of which were firearm homicides. Despite an overall decrease in rates of firearm injury death since 1990, there was variation among countries and across demographic subgroups.
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Authors , ;Naghavi, Mohsen;Marczak, Laurie B;Kutz, Michael;Shackelford, Katya Anne;Arora, Megha;Miller-Petrie, Molly;Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine;Akseer, Nadia;Al-Raddadi, Rajaa M;Alam, Khurshid;Alghnam, Suliman A;Antonio, Carl Abelardo T;Aremu, Olatunde;Arora, Amit;Asadi-Lari, Mohsen;Assadi, Reza;Atey, Tesfay Mehari;Avila-Burgos, Leticia;Awasthi, Ashish;Ayala Quintanilla, Beatriz Paulina;Barker-Collo, Suzanne Lyn;Bärnighausen, Till Winfried;Bazargan-Hejazi, Shahrzad;Behzadifar, Masoud;Behzadifar, Meysam;Bennett, James R;Bhalla, Ashish;Bhutta, Zulfiqar A;Bilal, Arebu Issa;Borges, Guilherme;Borschmann, Rohan;Brazinova, Alexandra;Campuzano Rincon, Julio Cesar;Carvalho, Félix;Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A;Dandona, Lalit;Dandona, Rakhi;Dargan, Paul I;De Leo, Diego;Dharmaratne, Samath Dhamminda;Ding, Eric L;Phuc Do, Huyen;Doku, David Teye;Doyle, Kerrie E;Driscoll, Tim Robert;Edessa, Dumessa;El-Khatib, Ziad;Endries, Aman Yesuf;Esteghamati, Alireza;Faro, Andre;Farzadfar, Farshad;Feigin, Valery L;Fischer, Florian;Foreman, Kyle J;Franklin, Richard Charles;Fullman, Nancy;Futran, Neal D;Gebrehiwot, Tsegaye Tewelde;Gutiérrez, Reyna Alma;Hafezi-Nejad, Nima;Haghparast Bidgoli, Hassan;Hailu, Gessessew Bugssa;Haro, Josep Maria;Hassen, Hamid Yimam;Hawley, Caitlin;Hendrie, Delia;Híjar, Martha;Hu, Guoqing;Ilesanmi, Olayinka Stephen;Jakovljevic, Mihajlo;James, Spencer L;Jayaraman, Sudha;Jonas, Jost B;Kahsay, Amaha;Kasaeian, Amir;Keiyoro, Peter Njenga;Khader, Yousef;Khalil, Ibrahim A;Khang, Young-Ho;Khubchandani, Jagdish;Ahmad Kiadaliri, Aliasghar;Kieling, Christian;Kim, Yun Jin;Kosen, Soewarta;Krohn, Kristopher J;Kumar, G Anil;Lami, Faris Hasan;Lansingh, Van C;Larson, Heidi Jane;Linn, Shai;Lunevicius, Raimundas;Magdy Abd El Razek, Hassan;Magdy Abd El Razek, Muhammed;Malekzadeh, Reza;Carvalho Malta, Deborah;Mason-Jones, Amanda J;Matzopoulos, Richard;Memiah, Peter T N;Mendoza, Walter;Meretoja, Tuomo J;Mezgebe, Haftay Berhane;Miller, Ted R;Mohammed, Shafiu;Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar;Mori, Rintaro;Nand, Devina;Tat Nguyen, Cuong;Le Nguyen, Quyen;Ningrum, Dina Nur Anggraini;Akpojene Ogbo, Felix;Olagunju, Andrew T;Patton, George C;Phillips, Michael R;Polinder, Suzanne;Pourmalek, Farshad;Qorbani, Mostafa;Rahimi-Movaghar, Afarin;Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa;Rahman, Mahfuzar;Rai, Rajesh Kumar;Ranabhat, Chhabi Lal;Rawaf, David Laith;Rawaf, Salman;Rowhani-Rahbar, Ali;Safdarian, Mahdi;Safiri, Saeid;Sagar, Rajesh;Salama, Joseph S;Sanabria, Juan;Santric Milicevic, Milena M;Sarmiento-Suárez, Rodrigo;Sartorius, Benn;Satpathy, Maheswar;Schwebel, David C;Seedat, Soraya;Sepanlou, Sadaf G;Shaikh, Masood Ali;Sharew, Nigussie Tadesse;Shiue, Ivy;Singh, Jasvinder A;Sisay, Mekonnen;Skirbekk, Vegard;Soares Filho, Adauto Martins;Stein, Dan J;Stokes, Mark Andrew;Sufiyan, Mu'awiyyah Babale;Swaroop, Mamta;Sykes, Bryan L;Tabarés-Seisdedos, Rafael;Tadese, Fentaw;Tran, Bach Xuan;Thanh Tran, Tung;Ukwaja, Kingsley Nnanna;Vasankari, Tommi Juhani;Vlassov, Vasily;Werdecker, Andrea;Ye, Pengpeng;Yip, Paul;Yonemoto, Naohiro;Younis, Mustafa Z;Zaidi, Zoubida;El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa;Hay, Simon I;Lim, Stephen S;Lopez, Alan D;Mokdad, Ali H;Vos, Theo;Murray, Christopher J L;
Journal JAMA
Year 2018
DOI
10.1001/jama.2018.10060
URL
Keywords
conflict displacement implementation substance misuse alcohol misuse

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