Predicting Global Fund grant disbursements for procurement of artemisinin-based combination therapies
Article Quality & Performance Metrics
Readership in this journal
PopularRanked #9 of 128 articles by views in malaria journal
Bar heights use a square-root scale. Only the 120 most-read articles are drawn; the journal has 128 in total.
Mint this article as an NFT
Not yet mintedCreate a permanent, verifiable on-chain record of this article on the Scimatic Network. The NFT is held in your Journament account, and you can withdraw it to your own wallet at any time.
Abstract
Abstract
Background
An accurate forecast of global demand is essential to stabilize the market for artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) and to ensure access to high-quality, life-saving medications at the lowest sustainable prices by avoiding underproduction and excessive overproduction, each of which can have negative consequences for the availability of affordable drugs. A robust forecast requires an understanding of the resources available to support procurement of these relatively expensive antimalarials, in particular from the Global Fund, at present the single largest source of ACT funding.
Methods
Predictive regression models estimating the timing and rate of disbursements from the Global Fund to recipient countries for each malaria grant were derived using a repeated split-sample procedure intended to avoid over-fitting. Predictions were compared against actual disbursements in a group of validation grants, and forecasts of ACT procurement extrapolated from disbursement predictions were evaluated against actual procurement in two sub-Saharan countries.
Results
Quarterly forecasts were correlated highly with actual smoothed disbursement rates (r = 0.987, p < 0.0001). Additionally, predicted ACT procurement, extrapolated from forecasted disbursements, was correlated strongly with actual ACT procurement supported by two grants from the Global Fund's first (r = 0.945, p < 0.0001) and fourth (r = 0.938, p < 0.0001) funding rounds.
Conclusion
This analysis derived predictive regression models that successfully forecasted disbursement patterning for individual Global Fund malaria grants. These results indicate the utility of this approach for demand forecasting of ACT and, potentially, for other commodities procured using funding from the Global Fund. Further validation using data from other countries in different regions and environments will be necessary to confirm its generalizability.
| Reference Key |
e2008predictingmalaria
Use this key to autocite in the manuscript while using
SciMatic Manuscript Manager or Thesis Manager
|
|---|---|
| Authors | |
| Journal | malaria journal |
| Year | 2008 |
| DOI |
DOI not found
|
| URL | |
| Keywords | Keywords not found |
Citations
No citations found. To add a citation, contact the admin at info@scimatic.org
ZincirX productsfrom the team behind Journament
-
PatentYazar
Patent drafts for the EPO, USPTO and TürkPatent
From inventor notes to a DOCX draft: description, claims, abstract. The machine drafts, the attorney signs.
See how it works (opens in a new tab) -
Projenator
Have a project idea? Score and plan it with AI
AI scores your idea in five dimensions and builds a phased plan. Your first project is free, no card needed.
Start your first project (opens in a new tab)
Cookies
We use strictly necessary cookies to run the site and keep you signed in. With your permission we would also use Google Analytics to see how the site is used, and Google AdSense to show ads on journal and article pages. Both stay off unless you accept, and you can change your mind at any time. How we use cookies · KVKK notice (Türkiye)
Cookie settings
Comments
No comments yet. Be the first to comment on this article.