Robust Aggregation of Correlated Information

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ID: 333341
2026
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Abstract
Abstract Decisions are typically made by drawing on multiple sources of information, yet the correlation among these sources is often hard to assess. We study robustly optimal strategies—those that maximize the worst-case payoff guarantee across all correlation structures. With two states and two actions, the robustly optimal strategy is strikingly simple: use only the best information source and ignore the rest. With more actions, a robustly optimal strategy decomposes the problem into local comparisons and assigns each comparison to the source that is best at that comparison. With more states, the same specialization logic survives through a concavification characterization: the decision problem is decomposed into payoff-relevant components, and each component is assigned to its best source. These results offer a new rationale for why ignoring information can be optimal and highlight the benefit of using specialized information sources when correlations are ambiguous.
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openalex_W3170157234 Use this key to autocite in the manuscript while using SciMatic Manuscript Manager or Thesis Manager
Authors Henrique de Oliveira, Yuhta Ishii, Xiao Lin
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Journal The Review of Economic Studies
Year 2026
DOI
10.1093/restud/rdag117
URL
https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdag117
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