Self-Consistent Simulations of the High-Redshift 21-cm Signal with Star Formation Calibrated to Hydrodynamic Simulations

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ID: 332382
2026
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Abstract
Abstract We present a novel, self-consistent, semi-numeric Cosmic Dawn (CD) simulation in which small-scale star formation (SF) is calibrated to the AEOS and Renaissance hydrodynamic simulations. SF proceeds within dark matter (DM) halos via neural network emulation while considering large-scale fluctuations in density and feedback. We translate the resulting 3D distribution of galaxies into predictions for the 21-cm brightness temperature, δTb, and power spectrum, Δ2(k). We simulate several unique realizations to study the impact of varying astrophysics on δTb, finding that more efficient Population II (PopII) SF largely yields stronger Lyman-α coupling, resulting in a shallower and wider absorption trough. However, we find that PopII SF dominates Δ2(k) at z ≲ 20 and on smaller scales at intermediate redshifts (k ≳ 0.2 Mpc−1 at z ≃ 34 − 20) while Population III (PopIII) SF dominates Δ2(k) at z ≳ 34 and on larger scales at intermediate redshifts. Compared with previous works, we find that the combination of hydrodynamic SF calibration, a critical halo mass for SF considering $\rm {H_{2}}$ self-shielding, and stochastic DM halo merger histories results in both earlier SF and higher SF rates across CD. Further, we find that the delay period separating PopIII and PopII SF (tdelay) significantly impacts δTb, and that one must include DM halo merger histories to properly account for this transition. Finally, we find our fiducial δTb to be detectable at z ≲ 25 with 1080 hours of HERA observations under moderate foreground assumptions, and the lack of such a detection at z ≳ 20 would suggest tdelay ≳ 30 Myr.
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Authors Colton R. Feathers, Eli Visbal, Steven Murray, Ryan Hazlett, Yin-Zhe Ma
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Journal monthly notices of the royal astronomical society
Year 2026
DOI
10.1093/mnras/stag1833
URL
https://doi.org/10.1093/mnras/stag1833
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