Structure, Deformation History, and Seismic Hazard of the Active Hutubi Anticline at the Deformation Front of the Northern Tian Shan

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ID: 331694
2026
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Abstract
Summary Industrial activities in active foreland fold-and-thrust belts complicate conventional seismic hazard assessment, yet how tectonic deformation and industrial perturbations affect fault stability remains poorly understood. The Hutubi underground gas storage facility, situated within the Hutubi anticline at the deformation front of northern Tian Shan, has experienced a marked increase in seismicity since the start of gas injection and extraction. Here, we integrate seismic-reflection interpretation, growth strata analysis, geomorphic surface survey and optically stimulated luminescence dating, and area-depth-strain analysis to reconstruct the structure and growth history of the Hutubi anticline and quantify its late Quaternary shortening rate. The Hutubi anticline is a detachment fold growing above an 8–9 km-deep detachment. The shortening and uplift rates of anticline have undergone a marked acceleration, rising from long-term averages of ∼0.06 and ∼0.03 mm/yr initiated in the Pliocene to ∼1.1 and ∼1.3 mm/yr since ∼0.4 Ma, respectively. This acceleration, consistent with other foreland structures, reflects ongoing basinward propagation of the Tian Shan deformation front in the late Quaternary. Within this tectonic setting, we further modeled the Coulomb stress evolution on secondary faults within the anticline driven by tectonic deformation. Our results indicate that tectonic deformation drives secondary faults to the seismic triggering threshold over a decade, and governs where ruptures nucleate and how they propagate, consistent with relocated earthquake observations in previous studies. Given sustained late Quaternary activity and pronounced injection-extraction perturbations, the potential for moderate-to-strong earthquakes (∼Mw5.3–7.0) on these faults cannot be ignored in the future. Thus, in active tectonic regions, seismic hazard assessments must incorporate deformation rates to accurately evaluate tectonic deformation and industrial perturbation effects on fault stability.
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Authors Ning Di, Jie Chen, Tao Li, Xuhang Yang, Yuan Yao, Weiheng Zhang, Kechang Li, Qi Liu, Lixing Lü, Wenxin Yang, Jiayu Gong
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Journal geophysical journal international
Year 2026
DOI
10.1093/gji/ggag417
URL
https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggag417
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