Santorini inflates again: Geodetic monitoring and modelling of the 2024–2025 volcanic unrest

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2026
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Abstract
Summary In August 2024, Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) stations observed changes in the displacement pattern of the Santorini Volcanic Complex, accompanied by microseismic activity, showing a potential sign of unrest. Here, we analyze and discuss surface deformation patterns related to the Santorini caldera unrest, spanning from summer 2024 to January 2025. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) interferometry was performed exploiting the Persistent Scatterer Interferometry (PSI) technique. We used both satellite geometries of the Sentinel-1 mission, producing line-of-sight (LOS) deformation maps and displacement decomposition in vertical and horizontal components. The observed displacements were combined with measurements from seven GNSS stations across the Santorini Volcanic Complex. The results highlight horizontal movements and uplift up to 70 mm/yr with a radial inflation pattern centered around the Kameni Islands, reminiscent of the 2011-2012 inflation episode. The geophysical model for the 2024-2025 period suggests a positive volume rate change at 3.15 km depth. Compared to the 2011-2012 unrest, the volume rate change is smaller; potentially a mix of magma and gas may be causing pressure along Kameni’s volcano-tectonic line, this time with a shallower source than the previous unrest. We address this particular period as the ”first phase” of the 2024-2025 unrest, since subsequent GNSS observations reveal a shift in the deformation, indicating the initialization of a different displacement pattern.
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Authors Andreas Karavias, D Anastasiou, Nikos Svigkas, X Papanikolaou, G De Astis, Simone Atzori, I Papoutsis
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Journal geophysical journal international
Year 2026
DOI
10.1093/gji/ggag416
URL
https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggag416
Keywords Keywords not found

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