Asymmetric behavioral responses to changes in subjective survival expectations: Implications for health investment in later life

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ID: 330881
2026
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Ranked #120 of 123 articles by views in the journals of gerontology series b, psychological sciences and social sciences

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Abstract
OBJECTIVES: Subjective survival probability (SSP) is a key predictor of economic and health decisions in later life, yet existing research assumes that gains and losses in survival expectations have symmetric behavioral effects. This study examines how within-person changes in SSP are associated with health-promoting behaviors among middle-aged and older adults in South Korea. METHODS: Using ten waves of the Korean Longitudinal Study of Ageing (2006-2024), we estimate individual fixed-effects models on an analytic sample of 65,069 person-wave observations from 10,878 individuals aged 45 and older. We extend the standard symmetric model by adopting an asymmetric fixed-effects framework, which decomposes cumulative SSP increases and decreases into separate parameters. RESULTS: The symmetric model shows that a one-unit increase in SSP (on a 0-10 scale) is associated with a 0.69 percentage-point increase in regular exercise, after controlling for self-rated health, chronic diseases, functional limitations, and socioeconomic characteristics. The asymmetric decomposition reveals two distinct patterns: exercise responds exclusively to SSP losses (loss-only), while paid health checkups respond only to SSP gains (gain-only). Formal symmetry tests reject equal absolute effects for both outcomes (p < .05). DISCUSSION: These findings provide evidence that associations between changing survival expectations and health behaviors may be asymmetric. The domain-specific nature of these asymmetries-loss-only disengagement in exercise and gain-only investment in preventive care-suggests that interventions targeting middle-aged and older adults may benefit from considering potentially different mechanisms linking survival expectations to behavior across outcome domains.
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openalex_W7218406155 Use this key to autocite in the manuscript while using SciMatic Manuscript Manager or Thesis Manager
Authors Sujeong Park, Hyewon Son, S. V. Subramanian, Jinho Kim
Journal the journals of gerontology series b, psychological sciences and social sciences
Year 2026
DOI
10.1093/geronb/gbag205
URL
https://doi.org/10.1093/geronb/gbag205
Keywords Keywords not found

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