Targeted breeding for drought-prone environments

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ID: 329771
2026
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Abstract
Key components of targeted breeding for drought-prone environments are discussed. The "Breeder's Equation" provides a framework to operationalise technologies that improve predictive breeding and accelerate genetic gain. Multi-Environment Trials (METs) are used to evaluate genotypes and construct training data sets for genomic prediction. However, to ensure the success of targeted breeding, they must include the high frequency agricultural drought environments that occur within the on-farm Target Population of Environments (TPEs). Enviromics and Phenomics technologies have advanced and can be applied to characterise the key agricultural drought environment-types, including distinguishing between vegetative, flowering and post-flowering water-deficits that expose contributions of traits to crop productivity. These design considerations collectively are referred to as MET-TPE alignment. Targeted breeding strategies are discussed using forms of the Breeder's Equation that include a term to quantify the trait genetic correlation between METs and the TPE as a measure of MET-TPE alignment. This extended Breeder's equation separates within-MET prediction accuracy from the MET→TPE transfer of prediction and selection outcomes. With improved MET-TPE alignment improved transfer of genetic gain to the on-farm TPE can be achieved. Conversely, the transfer diminishes with poor MET-TPE alignment and can fail for many scenarios even when within-MET cross-validation for genomic prediction looks good.
Reference Key
openalex_W7214346897 Use this key to autocite in the manuscript while using SciMatic Manuscript Manager or Thesis Manager
Authors Mark Cooper, Carlos D. Messina, Daniel Ortíz-Barrientos, Frank Technow
Journal Journal of experimental botany
Year 2026
DOI
10.1093/jxb/erag485
URL
https://doi.org/10.1093/jxb/erag485
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