The End of Oil

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ID: 328846
2026
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Abstract
Abstract Even as global oil demand has increased in recent years, it is plausible to envision scenarios in which clean energy technologies or climate policies drive demand to essentially zero by the century’s end. This paper asks what such a demand decline, when anticipated, might mean for global oil supply. One possibility is a “green paradox”: producers accelerate extraction. However, because extraction requires durable capital investments, the opposite may occur: producers reduce their investment rate, decreasing extraction. To evaluate the relative strengths of these opposing mechanisms, I develop a model of global oil supply that incorporates both, among other industry features. For model inputs with the strongest empirical support, both effects are modest, with disinvestment typically outweighing the green paradox. In order for the green paradox to substantially increase cumulative global oil extraction, investments must have short time horizons, and producers’ discount rates must be less than 4% real.
Reference Key
openalex_W7213408387 Use this key to autocite in the manuscript while using SciMatic Manuscript Manager or Thesis Manager
Authors Ryan Kellogg
Journal The Review of Economic Studies
Year 2026
DOI
10.1093/restud/rdag106
URL
https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdag106
Keywords Keywords not found

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