Attention to the Macroeconomy

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ID: 328819
2026
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Abstract
Abstract We measure which economic topics are top of mind using quarterly German household and firm panels from 2020 to 2024, a period that spans the post-pandemic inflation surge and the subsequent disinflation. With these data, we study potential determinants and consequences of having inflation top of mind. In line with goal-directed attention, the likelihood that inflation is top of mind rises with proxies for its true payoff relevance. At the same time, prior experiences predict whether respondents have inflation and energy prices top of mind conditional on a large set of controls for payoff relevance, and this relationship strengthens when the environment becomes more inflationary. Having inflation top of mind predicts stronger increases in information acquisition and inflation expectations over the shock period. At odds with goal-optimality, having inflation top of mind is associated with expectations further away from multiple ex-ante benchmarks. Finally, both key determinants of having inflation top of mind—payoff relevance and prior experiences—are associated with stronger shifts of expectations away from these benchmarks over the shock period.
Reference Key
openalex_W7213335860 Use this key to autocite in the manuscript while using SciMatic Manuscript Manager or Thesis Manager
Authors Sebastian Link, Andreas Peichl, Oliver Pfäuti, Christopher Roth, Johannes Wohlfart
Journal the quarterly journal of economics
Year 2026
DOI
10.1093/qje/qjag047
URL
https://academic.oup.com/qje/advance-article-pdf/doi/10.1093/qje/qjag047/71122939/qjag047.pdf
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