Numerical ground motion prediction for earthquake early warning incorporating correction of rupture directivity effects

Clicks: 18
ID: 327756
2026
Free PDF
Article Quality & Performance Metrics
Overall Quality
Not rated
Combines reader engagement with the AI quality analysis. This article has not been analysed, so there is no overall score — reader engagement is measured and shown alongside.
AI Quality Assessment
Not analyzed
Readership in this journal
Steady

Ranked #149 of 337 articles by views in geophysical journal international

Most read Least read

Bar heights use a square-root scale. Only the 120 most-read articles are drawn; the journal has 337 in total.

Mint this article as an NFT
Not yet minted

Create a permanent, verifiable on-chain record of this article on the Scimatic Network. The NFT is held in your Journament account, and you can withdraw it to your own wallet at any time.

5 SUSD one-off · no wallet required
Sign in to mint
Abstract
Summary The essence of earthquake early warning lies in the rapid and reliable prediction of the ground motion field after an earthquake occurs. While current numerical ground motion prediction methods based on data assimilation avoid the challenge of estimating source parameters, their interpolation processes do not adequately consider the source rupture directivity effects—a key physical factor controlling the spatially heterogeneous pattern of ground motions, resulting in limited prediction accuracy. To address this limitation, we break the traditional framework of numerical ground motion prediction methods and propose a novel real-time method that couples the source and ground motion field. This method incorporates a line-source model, dynamically extracts rupture directivity information, and estimates the line-source strike by comparing observed and predicted ground motion fields in real time, thereby continuously refining subsequent ground motion predictions. Tests using the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake (Mw 7.0) as an example demonstrate that the rupture direction inferred by this method within the early post-event period (within 28s) aligns closely with the results from detailed post-event inversion. After correction for the directivity effects, the accuracy of ground motion prediction is superior to that of traditional numerical prediction methods. The MAE of peak intensity predictions is reduced by 16.1%, 5.4%, and 19.6% for predictions of 5s, 10s, and 20s in advance, respectively.
Reference Key
openalex_W7211960468 Use this key to autocite in the manuscript while using SciMatic Manuscript Manager or Thesis Manager
Authors Zhihao Ren, Jiang Wang, Qiang Ma, Quancai Xie
Are you one of these authors? Claim your profile
Journal geophysical journal international
Year 2026
DOI
10.1093/gji/ggag368
URL
https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggag368
Keywords Keywords not found

Citations

No citations found. To add a citation, contact the admin at info@scimatic.org

Comments

No comments yet. Be the first to comment on this article.