Global rice methane emissions tripled over six decades amid declining emission intensity

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ID: 327287
2026
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Abstract
Abstract Rice paddies are among the largest anthropogenic sources of methane (CH4), yet substantial uncertainties persist in the long-term magnitude and spatiotemporal dynamics of the emissions. Here we show a spatially explicit global estimate of rice CH4 emissions from 1961 to 2020, leveraging a new high-resolution dataset and two Tier 3 modeling approaches (process-based and machine-learning-based). We find that global emissions have more than tripled over the past six decades, reaching a record high of 38.8 Tg CH4 yr−1 in 2020 based on the mean of the two Tier 3 estimates, both the rate and magnitude are substantially higher than conventional emission-factor-based inventories. Traditional rice-producing regions (e.g. Asia) dominated the increase due to expanded cultivation and intensified organic inputs, while Africa emerged as a rapidly growing source. Beyond trends in absolute emissions, the CH4 emission intensity (per unit of rice yield) declined across 70% of the global paddy area, mainly reflecting yield-driven efficiency gains. Notably, 44% of global rice production in the 2010 s occurs in countries with below-average emission intensity, with China being the largest contributor. By resolving long-term spatial heterogeneity with new data and models, this study provides a robust reassessment of the global rice methane budget and highlights pathways to reconcile food production with climate mitigation.
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Authors Qiwen Hu, Tingting Li, Hanzhi Xie, Yao Huang, Josep G. Canadell, Jingxian Li, Pete Smith, Wenping Yuan, Wen Zhang, Jianwen Zou, Jing Liu, Jiawen Zhang, Zhangcai Qin, Shilong Piao
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Journal national science review
Year 2026
DOI
10.1093/nsr/nwag555
URL
https://academic.oup.com/nsr/advance-article-pdf/doi/10.1093/nsr/nwag555/70852602/nwag555.pdf
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