Lifetime Risk of Cutaneous Melanoma in 185 Countries: Decomposing its Difference From Cumulative Risk into Methodological and Longevity Effects

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ID: 325001
2026
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Abstract
This study calculated lifetime risks of developing and dying from cutaneous melanoma across 185 countries, finding global rates of 0.49% and 0.10% respectively, with substantial variation by development index and geographic region. By decomposing the difference between lifetime and cumulative risk, the analysis reveals that risk accruing beyond age 74 years (rather than methodological adjustments) accounts for over 40% of the lifetime risk gap, indicating that lifetime risk is substantially higher than conventional cumulative risk estimates in long-lived populations. These findings support using lifetime risk as a complementary metric to cumulative risk when comparing melanoma burden across populations with differing life expectancy.
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openalex_W7203460919 Use this key to autocite in the manuscript while using SciMatic Manuscript Manager or Thesis Manager
Authors Yongtian Lin, Huiyan Su, Jing Lin, Yu Chen
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Journal the british journal of dermatology
Year 2026
DOI
10.1093/bjd/ljag336
URL
https://doi.org/10.1093/bjd/ljag336
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