Beyond the mass-radius plane: Integrated radiative-convective and interior structure simulations of the exoplanet continuum

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ID: 324308
2026
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Abstract
Abstract Static structure models, which map mass-radius constraints to bulk planet composition, are frequently used to categorise exoplanets due to their computational efficiency and the high-level insight they offer into planetary properties. However, static structure models typically have simplified atmospheric treatments, which may introduce systematic biases when interpreting the structures – and therefore the climates – of sub-Neptunes and super-Earths. We present a framework for recovering exoplanet properties using static structure models that accounts for necessary physical-chemical complexity in their atmospheres. We produce a comprehensive library of 504,000 exoplanet simulations that unify deep planetary interior structure with radiative-convective-chemical climate calculations. From these models we demonstrate that a planet’s envelope mass fraction – a critical parameter to infer – is frequently degenerate with its instellation flux and atmospheric metallicity, and sensitive to the treatment of gravitational acceleration at the mbar level. Such uncertainties have significant implications for inferring planetary processes, as our modelling shows that habitable-zone sub-Neptunes readily host supercritical surfaces or deep magma oceans, despite their temperate irradiation regime. To marginalise over these uncertainties, we introduce a Bayesian retrieval tool that uses our library of self-consistent models. By applying this Bayesian approach to case-studies of π Men c and TOI-421 b, we show that robust physical interpretations are achievable through whole-planet mass-radius retrievals. While new data from JWST, Ariel, and PLATO will expand our observational horizon, physically-consistent modelling provides the means to transition from categorical interpretations toward a comprehensive picture of the exoplanet continuum.
Reference Key
openalex_W7201884331 Use this key to autocite in the manuscript while using SciMatic Manuscript Manager or Thesis Manager
Authors Harrison Nicholls, Oliver Shorttle, Tim Lichtenberg, Flavia Pascal
Journal monthly notices of the royal astronomical society
Year 2026
DOI
10.1093/mnras/stag1489
URL
https://doi.org/10.1093/mnras/stag1489
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