Tipping Points and Cascading Transitions: Methods, Principles, and Evidence

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ID: 324182
2026
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Abstract
Abstract This review synthesizes recent advancements in understanding tipping points and cascading transitions within the Earth system, framing them through the lens of nonlinear dynamics and complexity science. It outlines the fundamental concepts of tipping elements, large-scale subsystems like the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and the Amazon rainforest, and classifies tipping mechanisms into bifurcation-, noise-, and rate-induced types. The article critically evaluates methods for detecting early-warning signals, particularly those based on critical slowing down, while also acknowledging their limitations and the promise of non-conventional indicators. Furthermore, we explore the significant risk of cascading transitions between interacting tipping elements, often modeled using conceptual network models. This shows that such interactions can substantially increase systemic risk under global warming. The review concludes by outlining key challenges related to data limitations and methodological robustness, and emphasizes the promising role of artificial intelligence and complex network science in advancing prediction and risk assessment of Earth system tipping dynamics.
Reference Key
openalex_W7201879444 Use this key to autocite in the manuscript while using SciMatic Manuscript Manager or Thesis Manager
Authors Sheng Fang, Ziyan Wang, Jürgen Kurths, Jingfang Fan
Journal national science review
Year 2026
DOI
10.1093/nsr/nwag478
URL
https://doi.org/10.1093/nsr/nwag478
Keywords Keywords not found

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