Patchy distribution of a Madrean Sky Island squirrel shaped by historical habitat configuration

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ID: 321634
2026
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Abstract
Abstract Sky islands—mountain-top forests isolated by surrounding lowlands—offer unique opportunities to test how past and present landscapes shape species distributions. We examined the distribution of the Arizona Gray Squirrel (Sciurus arizonensis) across the Madrean Archipelago to test the Constraint-based Dynamic Island Biogeography (C-DIB) model, which posits that current occupancy in the sky islands reflects historical habitat size and connectivity. Using verified specimen records, we modeled climatically suitable habitats across 4 time periods: the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM); Mid-Holocene (MH); Present; and Future. For each mountain, we quantified suitable habitat area and estimated least-cost dispersal distances to assess both persistence and colonization potential. Our results suggest that species presence is best explained by LGM habitat metrics, which marginally outperformed models based on current conditions. Mountains that were large or well-connected during the LGM continue to support S. arizonensis, whereas historically isolated ranges remain unoccupied despite suitable contemporary habitat. These findings indicate a legacy of Pleistocene connectivity and reveal patterns of distributional disequilibrium. Furthermore, climatically suitable habitat for S. arizonensis has shifted both elevationally and geographically through time, reflecting long-term responses to climatic change. Together, these results emphasize the importance of protecting historically connected refugia, restoring riparian corridors that facilitate dispersal, and developing mountain range-specific management strategies that account for elevational shifts and potential habitat redistribution under future climate scenarios.
Reference Key
openalex_W7169789269 Use this key to autocite in the manuscript while using SciMatic Manuscript Manager or Thesis Manager
Authors Binaya Adhikari, Jesse M. Alston, Joseph R. Burger
Journal journal of mammalogy
Year 2026
DOI
10.1093/jmammal/gyag062
URL
https://doi.org/10.1093/jmammal/gyag062
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