Conservation enhances resilience of the United States Duck Factory as environmental shifts may diminish landscape-scale waterfowl breeding capacity

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ID: 319746
2026
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Ranked #252 of 394 articles by views in macromolecular bioscience

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Abstract
Abstract Wetlands in the U.S. Prairie Pothole Region (USPPR) provide habitat for an estimated 5 million breeding ducks and remain a focal point for North American waterfowl conservation. After decades of investment, almost 20% of the USPPR is protected by some form of wetland or grassland conservation. We synthesized four decades of modeling studies aimed at understanding how environmental change may impact duck populations. We built upon past modeling efforts by applying an integrated scenario-based approach to inform wetland-waterfowl conservation planning. By century’s end, all scenarios projected declines (27%–53%) in breeding duck abundance in the USPPR. Despite these declines, areas in the USPPR with higher rates of protection and wetland density will likely continue to support the most breeding ducks, indicating resilient conservation planning. Our findings underscore the benefits of interdisciplinary efforts that can inform complex conservation decision-making in the face of environmental uncertainty.
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openalex_W7167461909 Use this key to autocite in the manuscript while using SciMatic Manuscript Manager or Thesis Manager
Authors Owen P. McKenna, Aaron T. Pearse, Imtiaz Rangwala, Jason D. Tack, Ned Wright, Audrey C. Lothspeich
Journal macromolecular bioscience
Year 2026
DOI
10.1093/biosci/biag091
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