FlowSN: Neural Simulation-Based Inference under Realistic Selection Effects applied to Supernova Cosmology

Clicks: 6
ID: 315897
2026
Article Quality & Performance Metrics
Overall Quality
Not rated
Combines reader engagement with the AI quality analysis. This article has not been analysed, so there is no overall score — reader engagement is measured and shown alongside.
AI Quality Assessment
Not analyzed
Readership in this journal
Steady

Ranked #770 of 963 articles by views in monthly notices of the royal astronomical society

Most read Least read

Bar heights use a square-root scale. Only the 120 most-read articles are drawn; the journal has 963 in total.

Mint this article as an NFT
Not yet minted

Create a permanent, verifiable on-chain record of this article on the Scimatic Network. The NFT is held in your Journament account, and you can withdraw it to your own wallet at any time.

5 SUSD one-off · no wallet required
Abstract
Abstract We present FlowSN, a statistical framework using simulation-based inference (SBI) with normalising flows to account for selection effects in observational astronomy. Failure to account for selection effects can lead to biased inference on global parameters. An example is Malmquist bias, where detection limits result in a sample skewed towards brighter objects. In Type Ia supernova (SN Ia) cosmology, these selection effects can systematically shift the inferred posterior distributions of cosmological parameters, necessitating the development of robust statistical frameworks to account for the biases. SBI enables us to implicitly learn probability distributions that are analytically intractable to calculate. In this work, we introduce a novel approach that employs a normalising flow to learn the non-analytic selected SN likelihood for a given survey from forward simulations, independent of the assumed cosmological model. The resulting likelihood approximation is incorporated into a hierarchical Bayesian framework and posterior sampling is performed using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo to obtain constraints on cosmological parameters conditioned on the observed data. The modular learnt likelihood approximation can be reused without retraining to evaluate different cosmological models, providing a key advantage over other SBI approaches. We demonstrate the performance of this methodology by training and testing the SBI technique using realistic LSST-like SNANA simulations for the first time. Our FlowSN approach yields accurate posterior estimates on cosmological parameters, including the dark energy equation of state w0, that are an order of magnitude less biased than those obtained with conventional techniques and also exhibit improved frequentist calibration.
Reference Key
openalex_W7163531515 Use this key to autocite in the manuscript while using SciMatic Manuscript Manager or Thesis Manager
Authors Benjamin M. Boyd, Kaisey S. Mandel, Matthew Grayling, Ayan Mitra, Richard Kessler, Maximilian Autenrieth, A. Do, Madeleine Ginolin, L Kelsey, Gautham Narayan, Matthew O’Callaghan, Nikhil Sarin, Stephen Thorp
Journal monthly notices of the royal astronomical society
Year 2026
DOI
10.1093/mnras/stag1046
URL
Keywords Keywords not found

Citations

No citations found. To add a citation, contact the admin at info@scimatic.org

No comments yet. Be the first to comment on this article.