Comparison of different long-term cardiovascular disease risk prediction horizons to guide preventive drug treatment in apparently healthy individuals
Clicks: 1
ID: 315598
2026
Article Quality & Performance Metrics
Overall Quality
Not rated
Combines reader engagement with the AI quality analysis. This
article has not been analysed, so there is no overall score —
reader engagement is measured and shown alongside.
Reader Engagement
0.0
/100
1 views
0 readers
AI Quality Assessment
Not analyzed
Readership in this journal
Ranked #66 of 72 articles by views in european heart journal - quality of care and clinical outcomes
Most read
Least read
Bar heights use a square-root scale.
Mint this article as an NFT
Not yet mintedCreate a permanent, verifiable on-chain record of this article on the Scimatic Network. The NFT is held in your Journament account, and you can withdraw it to your own wallet at any time.
5
SUSD
one-off · no wallet required
Abstract
AIMS: Guideline-recommended long-term cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction models use varying time horizons. This study compared which risk horizon (risk until ages 80 or 95 years, or 30-year risk) most effectively guides preventive treatment in apparently healthy individuals. METHODS: CVD risks for all horizon were estimated using the LIFE-CVD2 model in individuals aged 35-69 years without CVD or diabetes from the Dutch ELAN registry (2007-2024; n=364,003) and the EPIC-InterAct subcohort (1992-1998; n=8,813). Individuals in the top risk decile were compared across time horizons. Simulating blood pressure- and lipid-lowering therapy, the impact of using either time horizon was assessed by the expected gain in CVD-free life years and lifetime CVD events prevented. RESULTS: Individuals identified by 30-year risk were predominantly older and largely overlapped with 10-year risk (46%). In contrast, risk until ages 80 and 95 years showed less overlap with 10-year risk (18% and 20%, respectively) and identified more young men in the highest risk decile. Treatment guided by risk until ages 80 and 95 years yielded a median gain of 2.6 [IQR 2.2-2.9] CVD-free life years per person treated, with prevention of 4,434 and 4,658 CVD events, respectively, compared with 1.8 [IQR 1.4-1.9] years and 4,215 events for 30-year risk. A hybrid strategy combining 10-year risk with risk until age 80 years yielded a median gain of 2.5 [IQR 2.1-3.0] CVD-free life years. CONCLUSION: Long-term CVD risk estimation until age 80 years offers a pragmatic approach to identify younger high-risk individuals not captured by 10-year risk who may benefit from preventive treatment.
| Reference Key |
openalex_W7163249846
Use this key to autocite in the manuscript while using
SciMatic Manuscript Manager or Thesis Manager
|
|---|---|
| Authors | Stella Bijkerk, Janet M Kist, Lisa Pennells, Yvonne van der Schouw, Kunihiro Matsushita, Mattijs E Numans, Emanuele Di Angelantonio, Tamar I. de Vries, E W Steyerberg, Jannick A N Dorresteijn, Frank L J Visseren, Steven H J Hageman |
| Journal | european heart journal - quality of care and clinical outcomes |
| Year | 2026 |
| DOI |
10.1093/ehjqcco/qcag092
|
| URL | |
| Keywords | Keywords not found |
Citations
No citations found. To add a citation, contact the admin at info@scimatic.org
Comments
No comments yet. Be the first to comment on this article.