Catastrophes, Delays, and Learning

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ID: 314135
2026
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Abstract
Abstract We propose a simple and general model of experimentation in which reaching untried levels of a stock variable may, after a stochastic delay, lead to a catastrophe. Hence, at any point in time a catastrophe might well be under way, due to past experiments. We show how to measure this legacy of the past from prior beliefs and the chronicle of stock levels. We characterize the optimal policy as a function of the legacy and show that it leads to a new protocol for planning that applies to a general class of problems, encompassing the study of pandemics or climate change. Several original policy predictions follow, e.g. experimentation can stop but resume later.
Reference Key
openalex_W3093245719 Use this key to autocite in the manuscript while using SciMatic Manuscript Manager or Thesis Manager
Authors Matti Liski, François Salanié
Journal The Review of Economic Studies
Year 2026
DOI
10.1093/restud/rdag025
URL
https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdag025
Keywords Keywords not found

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