PEStimate : Predicting offspring disease risk after Polygenic Embryo Screening

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ID: 313670
2026
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Abstract
Abstract Motivation Polygenic embryo screening (PES) is a new controversial technology whereby human in-vitro fertilization embryos are screened for their genetic risk of complex, polygenic diseases. PES aims to reduce the disease burden in offspring by prioritizing the selection of low-risk embryos. However, given that polygenic diseases are usually late-onset, PES outcomes must be estimated by epidemiological modeling. The commonly used liability threshold model has been previously used to predict outcomes. However, predictions rely on complex sets of equations, some of which require numerical integration or simulation. Further, previous models failed to account for the possibility that the selected embryo will not be born. Results Here, we present PEStimate, a freely available online app for predicting PES outcomes when screening for a single disease. PEStimate predicts the offspring risk with and without PES, as well as generates plots of the risk reduction vs key parameters. Users can adjust the number of available embryos, the live birth rate, the disease prevalence, the accuracy of the genetic risk predictor, the embryo selection method, the genetic risk of parents, and the disease status of parents, siblings, uncles/aunts, and grandparents of the embryos. Our model includes for the first time the possibility of embryo implantation failure, showing that risk reductions have been previously overestimated. PEStimate provides geneticists, healthcare professionals, patients, and other stakeholders a necessary tool for examining the impact of PES and weighing its potential benefits against expected personal and societal harms. Availability and Implementation PEStimate: https://polygenicembryo.shinyapps.io/pestimate. Source code: https://github.com/Lirazk/PEStimate. Supplementary information Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.
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openalex_W7161261356 Use this key to autocite in the manuscript while using SciMatic Manuscript Manager or Thesis Manager
Authors Liraz Klausner, Ateret Revital, Todd Lencz, Shai Carmi
Journal BMC Bioinformatics
Year 2026
DOI
10.1093/bioinformatics/btag308
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