Input Sourcing under Climate Risk: Evidence from U.S. Manufacturing Firms

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ID: 313514
2026
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Abstract
Abstract We study the effect of risk on how firms organize their supply chains. We use transaction-level data on U.S. manufacturing imports to construct a novel measure of input sourcing risk based on the historical volatility of ocean shipping times. Our measure isolates the unexpected component of shipping times that is induced by weather conditions along more than 331,000 maritime routes. We first document that unexpected shipping delays significantly reduce importers’ sales, profits, and employment. We then show that firms actively diversify weather risk by using more routes and foreign suppliers, although their import values decline. To rationalize these findings, we introduce shipping time risk into a general equilibrium model of importing with firm heterogeneity. Our quantitative analysis predicts substantial costs for the U.S. economy associated with supply chain risk.
Reference Key
openalex_W7161175545 Use this key to autocite in the manuscript while using SciMatic Manuscript Manager or Thesis Manager
Authors Joaquin Blaum, Federico Esposito, Sebastian Heise
Journal The Review of Economic Studies
Year 2026
DOI
10.1093/restud/rdag031
URL
https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdag031
Keywords Keywords not found

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