Are Output Fluctuations Transitory?

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ID: 305272
1987
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Abstract
According to the conventional view of the businesB cycle, fluctuations in output represent temporary deviations from trend.The purpose of this paper is to question this conventional view.If fluctuations in output are dominated by temporary deviations from the natural rate of output, then an unexpected change in output today should not substantially change one's forecast of output in, say, five or ten years.Our examination of quarterly postwar United States data leads us to be skeptical ahout this implication.The data suggest that an unexpected change in real GNP of 1 percent should change one's forecast by over 1 percent over a long horizon.
Reference Key
openalex_W2166490115 Use this key to autocite in the manuscript while using SciMatic Manuscript Manager or Thesis Manager
Authors John Y. Campbell, N. Gregory Mankiw
Journal the quarterly journal of economics
Year 1987
DOI
10.2307/1884285
URL
https://doi.org/10.2307/1884285
Keywords Keywords not found

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