First Impressions Matter: A Model of Confirmatory Bias

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ID: 299324
1999
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Abstract
Psychological research indicates that people have a cognitive bias that leads them to misinterpret new information as supporting previously held hypotheses. We show in a simple model that such confirmatory bias induces overconfidence: given any probabilistic assessment by an agent that one of two hypotheses is true, the appropriate beliefs would deem it less likely to be true. Indeed, the hypothesis that the agent believes in may be more likely to be wrong than right. We also show that the agent may come to believe with near certainty in a false hypothesis despite receiving an infinite amount of information.
Reference Key
openalex_W2159322587 Use this key to autocite in the manuscript while using SciMatic Manuscript Manager or Thesis Manager
Authors Matthew Rabin, John L. Schrag
Journal the quarterly journal of economics
Year 1999
DOI
10.1162/003355399555945
URL
https://doi.org/10.1162/003355399555945
Keywords Keywords not found

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