Macroeconomic Expectations of Households and Professional Forecasters

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ID: 297287
2003
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Abstract
Economists have long emphasized the importance of expectations in determining macroeconomic outcomes. Yet there has been almost no recent effort to model actual empirical expectations data; instead ,m acroeconomists usually simply assume that expectations are ‘rational.’ This paper shows that while empirical household expectations are not rational in the usual sense, expectational dynamics are well captured by a model in which households’ views derive from news reports of the views of professional forecasters, which in turn may be rational. The model’s estimates imply that people only occasionally pay attention to news reports; this inattention generates ‘stickyness’ in aggregate expectations, with important macroeconomic consequences.
Reference Key
openalex_W2052647713 Use this key to autocite in the manuscript while using SciMatic Manuscript Manager or Thesis Manager
Authors Christopher Carroll
Journal the quarterly journal of economics
Year 2003
DOI
10.1162/00335530360535207
URL
Keywords Keywords not found

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