Error analysis of CO2 and O2 estimates from the long-term geochemical model GEOCARBSULF

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ID: 293041
2014
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Abstract
Long-term carbon and sulfur cycle models have helped shape our understanding of the Phanerozoic history of atmospheric CO2 and O2, but error analyses have been largely limited to testing only a subset of input parameters singly. As a result, the full ranges of probable CO2 and O2 are not quantitatively known. Here we investigate how variation in all 68 input parameters of the GEOCARBSULF model, both singly and in combination, affect estimated CO2 and O2. We improve formulations for land area, runoff, and continental temperature, the latter of which now excludes land area not experiencing chemical weathering. We find our resampled model CO2 and O2 estimates are well bounded and provide high confidence for a "double-hump" in CO2 during the Phanerozoic, with high values during the early Paleozoic and Mesozoic, and low values during the late Paleozoic and late Mesozoic-to-Cenozoic. Our analyses also support a distinct atmospheric O2 peak during the late Paleozoic (>30%) followed by low values near the Triassic-Jurassic boundary (∼10%). Most of the spread in CO2 is contributed by three factors: climate sensitivity to CO2-doubling and the plant-assisted chemical weathering factors LIFE and GYM. CO2 estimates during the Paleozoic to early Mesozoic are highly concordant with independent records from proxies, but are offset to lower values during the globally warm late Mesozoic to early Cenozoic. The model-proxy mismatch for the late Mesozoic can be eliminated with a change in GYM within its plausible range, but no change within plausible ranges can resolve the early Cenozoic mismatch. Either the true value for one or more input parameters during this interval is outside our sampled range, or the model is missing one or more key processes.
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Authors Dana L. Royer, Yannick Donnadieu, Jeffrey Park, Jennifer Kowalczyk, Yves Goddéris
Journal american journal of science
Year 2014
DOI
10.2475/09.2014.01
URL
https://doi.org/10.2475/09.2014.01
Keywords Keywords not found

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