Multimodal nested sampling: an efficient and robust alternative to Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods for astronomical data analyses

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ID: 292083
2008
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Abstract
In performing a Bayesian analysis of astronomical data, two difficult problems often emerge. First, in estimating the parameters of some model for the data, the resulting posterior distribution may be multimodal or exhibit pronounced (curving) degeneracies, which can cause problems for traditional MCMC sampling methods. Second, in selecting between a set of competing models, calculation of the Bayesian evidence for each model is computationally expensive. The nested sampling method introduced by Skilling (2004), has greatly reduced the computational expense of calculating evidences and also produces posterior inferences as a by-product. This method has been applied successfully in cosmological applications by Mukherjee et al. (2006), but their implementation was efficient only for unimodal distributions without pronounced degeneracies. Shaw et al. (2007), recently introduced a clustered nested sampling method which is significantly more efficient in sampling from multimodal posteriors and also determines the expectation and variance of the final evidence from a single run of the algorithm, hence providing a further increase in efficiency. In this paper, we build on the work of Shaw et al. and present three new methods for sampling and evidence evaluation from distributions that may contain multiple modes and significant degeneracies; we also present an even more efficient technique for estimating the uncertainty on the evaluated evidence. These methods lead to a further substantial improvement in sampling efficiency and robustness, and are applied to toy problems to demonstrate the accuracy and economy of the evidence calculation and parameter estimation. Finally, we discuss the use of these methods in performing Bayesian object detection in astronomical datasets.
Reference Key
openalex_W1839094326 Use this key to autocite in the manuscript while using SciMatic Manuscript Manager or Thesis Manager
Authors F. Feroz, Michael P. Hobson
Journal monthly notices of the royal astronomical society
Year 2008
DOI
10.1111/j.1365-2966.2007.12353.x
URL
https://academic.oup.com/mnras/article-pdf/384/2/449/3378518/mnras0384-0449.pdf
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