Analyzing the dynamics of COVID-19 transmission in select regions of the Philippines: A modeling approach to assess the impact of various tiers of community quarantines.

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ID: 283552
2024
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Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly impacted communities worldwide, and effective management strategies are critical to reduce transmission rates and minimize the impact of the disease. In this study, we modeled and analyzed the COVID-19 transmission dynamics and derived relevant epidemiological values for three regions of the Philippines, namely, the National Capital Region (NCR), Davao City, and Baguio City, under different community quarantine implementations. The unique features and differences of these regions-of-interest were accounted for in simulating the disease spread and in estimating key epidemiological parameters fitted to the reported COVID-19 cases. Results support the robustness of the model formulated and provides insights into the effect of the government's implemented intervention protocols. With a forecasting feature, this modeling framework is beneficial for science-based decision support, policy making, and assessment for recent and future pandemics wherever regions-of-interest.
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Authors Mata, May Anne E; Escosio, Rey Audie S; Rosero, El Veena Grace A; Viernes, Jhunas Paul T; Anonuevo, Loreniel E; Hernandez, Bryan S; Addawe, Joel M; Addawe, Rizavel C; Pilar-Arceo, Carlene P C; Mendoza, Victoria May P; de Los Reyes, Aurelio A
Journal Heliyon
Year 2024
DOI
10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e39330
URL
Keywords
coronavirus seir community quarantine compartmental model population factor time-varying reproduction number

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