modeling the spatial distribution of crop cultivated areas at a large regional scale combining system dynamics and a modified dyna-clue: a case from iran

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ID: 240971
2018
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Abstract
Agricultural land use pattern is affected by many factors at different scales and effects that are separated by time and space. This will lead to simulation models that optimize or project the cropping pattern changes and incorporate complexities in terms of details and dynamics. Combining System Dynamics (SD) and a modified Conversion of Land Use and its Effects (CLUE) modelling framework, this paper suggests a new dynamic approach for assessing the demand of different crops at country-level and for predicting the spatial distribution of cultivated areas at provincial scale. As example, a case study is presented for Iran, where we have simulated a scenario of future cropping pattern changes during 2015–2040.The results indicated a change in the spatial distribution of cultivated areas during the next years. An increase in the proportion of rice is expected in northern Iran, whereas the proportion of wheat is increasing in the mountainous western areas. Wheat and barley crops are expected to become dominant within the cropping system throughout the country regions.
Reference Key
mesgari2018spanishmodeling Use this key to autocite in the manuscript while using SciMatic Manuscript Manager or Thesis Manager
Authors ;Iman Mesgari;Mohammad Saeed Jabalameli
Journal Canadian Medical Association Journal
Year 2018
DOI
10.5424/sjar/2017154-10630
URL
http://revistas.inia.es/index.php/sjar/article/view/10630
Keywords
land use integrated modeling

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