modelagem de incertezas na análise espaço-temporal dos níveis freáticos em uma bacia hidrográfica uncertain modeling on spatio-temporal analysis of water table depths in a watershed

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ID: 219585
2007
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Ranked #37 of 193 articles by views in proc - the fourth ieee workshop on software technol for future embedded and ubiquitous syst, seus 2006 andthe second int workshop on collaborative comput, integr, and assur, wccia 2006

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Abstract
O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar a oscilação dos níveis freáticos em uma bacia hidrográfica, no período seco, e modelar a variabilidade espaço-temporal desses níveis por meio de técnicas geoestatísticas multivariadas. A área de estudo foi o alto da Bacia do Rio Jardim, Distrito Federal. O regime hídrico dessa região é marcado pela sazonalidade, com períodos chuvosos (outubro a abril) e secos (maio a setembro) distintos, que determinam o comportamento dos níveis freáticos. Quanto aos fenômenos com indexação espaço-temporal, a geoestatística propõe soluções pelo modelo linear de co-regionalização, permitindo a quantificação e mapeamento das reservas hídricas subterrâneas. Quantificaram-se o volume perdido de água e o risco associado às estimativas pelas medidas de incerteza, criando-se cenários críticos do volume do aqüífero explorado na seca. Na seca, observou-se decréscimo de água nesse aqüífero. O mapa do quantil 10% indicou áreas favoráveis ao uso da água, em que os níveis freáticos oscilaram menos. O mapa do quantil 90% indicou áreas com grandes oscilações dos níveis freáticos que contribuem mais para drenagem e recarga do aqüífero.
The aim of this work was to evaluate water table depths in a watershed during the dry season as well as modeling space-time variability of water table depths through multivariate geostatistics techniques. The study area was the high portion of Jardim's river watershed, Distrito Federal, Brazil. Water regime of that region is ruled by seasonality, resulting in wet (October until April) and dry (May until September) periods well-defined that control the behavior of the water table. On space-time index phenomena, geostatistics provide solutions through linear co-regionalization model, allowing quantifying and mapping groundwater reserves. The lost water volume was quantified, as well as the associated estimation risk, through uncertain measures, creating critical scenarios of the explored aquifer volume during the dry season. During the dry season, there was a decrease of water in that aquifer. The quantile map 10% indicated favorable areas for water use, where the phreatic levels oscillated less. The quantile map 90% indicated areas with great oscillations of the phreatic levels that contribute more to the drainage and recharge of the aquifer.
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manzione2007pesquisamodelagem Use this key to autocite in the manuscript while using SciMatic Manuscript Manager or Thesis Manager
Authors ;Rodrigo Lilla Manzione;Suzana Druck;Gilberto Câmara;Antonio Miguel Vieira Monteiro
Journal proc - the fourth ieee workshop on software technol for future embedded and ubiquitous syst, seus 2006 andthe second int workshop on collaborative comput, integr, and assur, wccia 2006
Year 2007
DOI
10.1590/S0100-204X2007000100004
URL
http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0100-204X2007000100004
Keywords
groundwater geostatistics uncertain measuresagriculture (general)

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