aplicação do euroscore na cirurgia de revascularização miocárdica em hospitais públicos do rio de janeiro application of the euroscore in coronary artery bypass surgery in public hospitals in rio de janeiro, brazil

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ID: 213619
2010
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Abstract
FUNDAMENTOS: Modelos de estratificação de risco são utilizados em cirurgia para avaliar risco de morte. OBJETIVO: Fazer análise crítica da aplicação do EuroSCORE (ES) em amostras de prontuários de 2692 pacientes submetidos à cirurgia de revascularização miocárdica em 4 hospitais públicos do município do Rio de Janeiro, no período de 1999 a 2003. MÉTODOS: Foram selecionadas, em quatro hospitais públicos da cidade do Rio de Janeiro, amostras aleatórias de 150 prontuários de pacientes por hospital, sobreviventes e óbitos. Aplicou-se o ES utilizando-se o modelo logístico. A letalidade observada e prevista pelo modelo foi comparada. A aferição do poder discriminante foi estimada pela área sob a curva ROC. RESULTADOS: Localizados 546 dos 600 prontuários selecionados. Observou-se significativa diferença entre prevalências dos fatores de risco entre nossa população e européia. Letalidade prevista foi 3,62% (IC-95%: 3,47-3,78) e observada estimada foi 12,22% (IC-95%- 10,99-13,46). Em todas as faixas de risco, há subestimação da letalidade prevista, com diferenças notáveis entre prevista e observada.Área sob a curva ROC foi estimada em 0,62. CONCLUSÃO: Diferenças das prevalências dos fatores de risco que compõem o ES associado ao baixo poder discriminatório desaconselham a utilização do modelo em nosso meio sem devidos ajustes.
BACKGROUND: Risk stratification models are used to assess the risk of death in surgery. OBJECTIVE: To conduct a critical analysis of the EuroSCORE logistic model (ES) application in 2,692 patients undergoing Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting (CABG) in four public hospitals in the Rio de Janeiro Municipality, from 1999 through to December 2003. METHODS: Random samples of 150 medical records for surviving and deceased patients were selected at four public hospitals in the City of Rio de Janeiro. The ES was applied, using the logistical model. The observed lethality rate and that forecast by the model were compared. The measurement of the discriminatory power was estimated by the area under the ROC curve. RESULTS: 546 of the 600 selected medical records were located. A significant difference was noted between the prevalence rates for the risk factors in the Brazilian and European populations. The forecast lethality rate was 3.62% (CI-95%: 3.47-3.78) while the estimated observed rate was 12.22% (CI-95%- 10.99-13.46). In all risk ranges, the predicted lethality rate is under-estimated, with notable differences between the predicted and observed rates. The area under the ROC curve was estimated at 0.62. CONCLUSION: The differences in the prevalence rates for the risk factors constituting the ES, associated with its low power of discrimination, hamper any recommendation of the use of this model in Brazil, without the necessary adjustments.
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carvalho2010brazilianaplicao Use this key to autocite in the manuscript while using SciMatic Manuscript Manager or Thesis Manager
Authors ;Márcio Roberto Moraes de Carvalho;Nelson Albuquerque de Souza e Silva;Carlos Henrique Klein;Gláucia Maria Moraes de Oliveira
Journal 2017 international conference on information technology systems and innovation, icitsi 2017 - proceedings
Year 2010
DOI
10.1590/S0102-76382010000200013
URL
http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0102-76382010000200013
Keywords
Risk factors risk assessment myocardial revascularization fatores de risco

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