landslide early warning based on failure forecast models: the example of the mt. de la saxe rockslide, northern italy

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2015
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Abstract
We apply failure forecast models by exploiting near-real-time monitoring data for the La Saxe rockslide, a large unstable slope threatening Aosta Valley in northern Italy. Starting from the inverse velocity theory, we analyze landslide surface displacements automatically and in near real time on different temporal windows and apply straightforward statistical methods to obtain confidence intervals on the estimated time of failure. Here, we present the result obtained for the La Saxe rockslide, a large unstable slope located in Aosta Valley, northern Italy. Based on this case study, we identify operational thresholds that are established on the reliability of the forecast models. Our approach is aimed at supporting the management of early warning systems in the most critical phases of the landslide emergency.
Reference Key
manconi2015naturallandslide Use this key to autocite in the manuscript while using SciMatic Manuscript Manager or Thesis Manager
Authors ;A. Manconi;D. Giordan
Journal anziam journal
Year 2015
DOI
10.5194/nhess-15-1639-2015
URL
http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/15/1639/2015/nhess-15-1639-2015.pdf
Keywords
anthropology recreationenvironmental sciencesgeology sanitary engineeringgeography environmental technology

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