custo de ciclo econômico no brasil em um modelo com restrição a crédito
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2004
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Abstract
O estudo do impacto de ciclo econômico no bem-estar dos indivíduos de uma economia é um assunto de grande importância teórica. Ao considerarmos a economia brasileira, em que grande maioria dos indivíduos não dispõe de mecanismos de crédito, ele torna-se ainda mais relevante. Se os agentes não são capazes de suavizar consumo segundo a hipótese da renda permanente de Friedman, é de se esperar que estes sofram impactos ainda maiores diante de flutuações na renda. Utilizamos o modelo proposto por Imrohoroglu (1989) para os dados da economia brasileira a fim de mensurar a perda de bem-estar causada por um ciclo econômico. A partir de resultados que mostram o significativo custo dos ciclos econômicos, propomos a introdução do governo no modelo. Agindo no sentido de completar mercados, o governo se mostrou eficiente. Apesar de simples, nosso experimento mostrou a importância de investigarmos a ação governamental como opção para a elevação do bem-estar em economias restritas ao crédito ao longo de flutuações econômicas.
This article studies the welfare cost of business cycles fluctuation in Brazil. We use a model, due to Imrohoroglu (1989), in which agents are ex-post heterogeneous with respect to employment and cannot smooth perfectly consumption as they are credit restricted. This is highly relevant as the evidence is that at least 75% of Brazilian population has no access to credit markets so that their consumption path tend to be highly sensitive to economic variability. Our simulations show that in fact welfare losses due to output fluctuations are significant in Brazil and much higher than the losses found for the US economy. We introduce in the model public policies that tend to complete markets and act as an (imperfect) insurance. With a very simple tax and transfer mechanism we show that the government can increase considerably welfare.
This article studies the welfare cost of business cycles fluctuation in Brazil. We use a model, due to Imrohoroglu (1989), in which agents are ex-post heterogeneous with respect to employment and cannot smooth perfectly consumption as they are credit restricted. This is highly relevant as the evidence is that at least 75% of Brazilian population has no access to credit markets so that their consumption path tend to be highly sensitive to economic variability. Our simulations show that in fact welfare losses due to output fluctuations are significant in Brazil and much higher than the losses found for the US economy. We introduce in the model public policies that tend to complete markets and act as an (imperfect) insurance. With a very simple tax and transfer mechanism we show that the government can increase considerably welfare.
| Reference Key |
cunha2004estudoscusto
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|---|---|
| Authors | ;Bárbara Vasconcelos Boa Vista da Cunha;Pedro Cavalcanti Ferreira |
| Journal | trends in biochemical sciences |
| Year | 2004 |
| DOI |
10.1590/S0101-41612004000200001
|
| URL | |
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