on making the right choice: a meta-analysis and large-scale replication attempt of the unconscious thought advantage
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2015
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Abstract
Are difficult decisions
best made after a momentary diversion of thought? Previous research addressing
this important question has yielded dozens of experiments in which participants
were asked to choose the best of several options (e.g., cars or apartments)
either after conscious deliberation, or after a momentary diversion of thought
induced by an unrelated task. The results of these studies were mixed. Some
found that participants who had first performed the unrelated task were more
likely to choose the best option, whereas others found no evidence for this
so-called unconscious thought advantage (UTA). The current study examined two
accounts of this inconsistency in previous findings. According to the
reliability account, the UTA does not exist and previous reports of this effect
concern nothing but spurious effects obtained with an unreliable paradigm. In
contrast, the moderator account proposes that the UTA is a real effect that
occurs only when certain conditions are met in the choice task. To test these
accounts, we conducted a meta-analysis and a large-scale replication study (N =
399) that met the conditions deemed optimal for replicating the UTA. Consistent
with the reliability account, the large-scale replication study yielded no
evidence for the UTA, and the meta-analysis showed that previous reports of the
UTA were confined to underpowered studies that used relatively small sample
sizes. Furthermore, the results of the large-scale study also dispelled the
recent suggestion that the UTA might be gender-specific. Accordingly, we
conclude that there exists no reliable support for the claim that a momentary
diversion of thought leads to better decision making than a period of
deliberation.
| Reference Key |
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nieuwenstein2015judgmenton
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|---|---|
| Authors | ;Mark R. Nieuwenstein;Tjardie Wierenga;Richard D. Morey;Jelte M. Wicherts;Tesse N. Blom;Eric-Jan Wagenmakers;Hedderik van Rijn |
| Journal | nederlands tijdschrift voor geneeskunde |
| Year | 2015 |
| DOI |
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| URL | |
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