fire danger rating over mediterranean europe based on fire radiative power derived from meteosat
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ID: 184277
2018
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Abstract
We present a procedure that allows the operational generation of daily
forecasts of fire danger over Mediterranean Europe. The procedure combines
historical information about radiative energy released by fire events with
daily meteorological forecasts, as provided by the Satellite Application
Facility for Land Surface Analysis (LSA SAF) and the European Centre for
Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Fire danger is estimated based on
daily probabilities of exceedance of daily energy released by fires occurring
at the pixel level. Daily probability considers meteorological factors by
means of the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) and is estimated using a daily
model based on a generalized Pareto distribution. Five classes of fire danger
are then associated with daily probability estimated by the daily model. The
model is calibrated using 13 years of data (2004–2016) and validated
against the period of January–September 2017. Results obtained show that
about 72 % of events releasing daily energy above 10 000 GJ belong to the
extremeclass of fire danger, a considerably high fraction that is more than 1.5 times the values obtained when using the currently operational Fire Danger Forecast module of the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS) or the Fire Risk Map (FRM) product disseminated by the LSA SAF. Besides assisting in wildfire management, the procedure is expected to help in decision making on prescribed burning within the framework of agricultural and forest management practices.
| Reference Key |
pinto2018naturalfire
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|---|---|
| Authors | ;M. M. Pinto;C. C. DaCamara;I. F. Trigo;R. M. Trigo;K. F. Turkman |
| Journal | anziam journal |
| Year | 2018 |
| DOI |
10.5194/nhess-18-515-2018
|
| URL | |
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