probabilistic structure of an annual extreme rainfall series of a coastal area of the state of são paulo, brazil estrutura probabilística de uma série anual de precipitação pluvial extrema de uma região do litoral do estado de são paulo

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ID: 184012
2012
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Abstract
This study aimed to describe the probabilistic structure of the annual series of extreme daily rainfall (Preabs), available from the weather station of Ubatuba, State of São Paulo, Brazil (1935-2009), by using the general distribution of extreme value (GEV). The autocorrelation function, the Mann-Kendall test, and the wavelet analysis were used in order to evaluate the presence of serial correlations, trends, and periodical components. Considering the results obtained using these three statistical methods, it was possible to assume the hypothesis that this temporal series is free from persistence, trends, and periodicals components. Based on quantitative and qualitative adhesion tests, it was found that the GEV may be used in order to quantify the probabilities of the Preabs data. The best results of GEV were obtained when the parameters of this function were estimated using the method of maximum likelihood. The method of L-moments has also shown satisfactory results.
O objetivo do trabalho foi descrever a estrutura probabilística da série anual de precipitação pluvial extrema diária (Preabs), da estação meteorológica de Ubatuba, Estado de São Paulo, Brasil (1935-2009), empregando a distribuição geral dos valores extremos (GEV). A fim de avaliar a presença de correlações seriais, tendências e periodicidades, empregou-se a função auto-correlação, o teste de Mann-Kendall e a análise de ondaletas. Considerando os resultados obtidos com estes três métodos estatísticos, foi possível aceitar as hipóteses de que essa série temporal é livre de persistência, tendências e componentes periódicas. Com base em testes de aderência qualitativos e quantitativos, verificou-se que a GEV pode ser usada para quantificar as probabilidades associadas aos dados de Preabs. A GEV apresentou melhor desempenho quando os parâmetros desta função foram estimados pelo método da máxima verossimilhança. O método dos momentos-L também apresentou desempenho satisfatório.
Reference Key
blain2012engenhariaprobabilistic Use this key to autocite in the manuscript while using SciMatic Manuscript Manager or Thesis Manager
Authors ;Gabriel C. Blain;Marcelo B. P. de Camargo
Journal bioorganic and medicinal chemistry letters
Year 2012
DOI
10.1590/S0100-69162012000300014
URL
http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0100-69162012000300014
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