simulating the probability of grain sorghum maturity before the first frost in northeastern colorado

Expanding grain sorghum [Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench] production northward from southeastern Colorado is thought to be limited by shorter growing seasons due to lower temperatures and earlier frost dates. This study used a simulation model for predicting crop phenology (PhenologyMMS) to estimate the probability of reaching physiological maturity before the first fall frost for a variety of agronomic practices in northeastern Colorado. Physiological maturity for seven planting dates (1 May to 12 June), four seedbed moisture conditions affecting seedling emergence (from Optimum to Planted in Dust), and three maturity classes (Early, Medium, and Late) were simulated using historical weather data from nine locations for both irrigated and dryland phenological parameters. The probability of reaching maturity before the first frost was slightly higher under dryland conditions, decreased as latitude, longitude, and elevation increased, planting date was delayed, and for later maturity classes. The results provide producers with estimates of the reliability of growing grain sorghum in northeastern Colorado.