uncertainty propagation for flood forecasting in the alps: different views and impacts from map d-phase
Clicks: 118
ID: 180035
2012
Article Quality & Performance Metrics
Overall Quality
Not rated
Combines reader engagement with the AI quality analysis. This
article has not been analysed, so there is no overall score —
reader engagement is measured and shown alongside.
Reader Engagement
Steady Performance
30.0
/100
118 views
26 readers
AI Quality Assessment
Not analyzed
Readership in this journal
SteadyRanked #142 of 190 articles by views in anziam journal
Most read
Least read
Bar heights use a square-root scale. Only the 120 most-read articles are drawn; the journal has 190 in total.
Mint this article as an NFT
Not yet mintedCreate a permanent, verifiable on-chain record of this article on the Scimatic Network. The NFT is held in your Journament account, and you can withdraw it to your own wallet at any time.
5
SUSD
one-off · no wallet required
Abstract
D-PHASE was a Forecast Demonstration Project of the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) related to the Mesoscale Alpine Programme (MAP). Its goal was to demonstrate the reliability and quality of operational forecasting of orographically influenced (determined) precipitation in the Alps and its consequences on the distribution of run-off characteristics. A special focus was, of course, on heavy-precipitation events. <br><br> The D-PHASE Operations Period (DOP) ran from June to November~2007, during which an end-to-end forecasting system was operated covering many individual catchments in the Alps, with their water authorities, civil protection organizations or other end users. The forecasting system's core piece was a <i>Visualization Platform</i> where precipitation and flood warnings from some 30 atmospheric and 7 hydrological models (both deterministic and probabilistic) and corresponding model fields were displayed in uniform and comparable formats. Also, meteograms, nowcasting information and end user communication was made available to all the forecasters, users and end users. D-PHASE information was assessed and used by some 50 different groups ranging from atmospheric forecasters to civil protection authorities or water management bodies. <br><br> In the present contribution, D-PHASE is briefly presented along with its outstanding scientific results and, in particular, the lessons learnt with respect to uncertainty propagation. A focus is thereby on the transfer of ensemble prediction information into the hydrological community and its use with respect to other aspects of societal impact. Objective verification of forecast quality is contrasted to subjective quality assessments during the project (end user workshops, questionnaires) and some general conclusions concerning forecast demonstration projects are drawn.
| Reference Key |
rotach2012naturaluncertainty
Use this key to autocite in the manuscript while using
SciMatic Manuscript Manager or Thesis Manager
|
|---|---|
| Authors | ;M. W. Rotach;M. Arpagaus;M. Dorninger;C. Hegg;A. Montani;R. Ranzi |
| Journal | anziam journal |
| Year | 2012 |
| DOI |
10.5194/nhess-12-2439-2012
|
| URL | |
| Keywords |
Citations
No citations found. To add a citation, contact the admin at info@scimatic.org
Comments
No comments yet. Be the first to comment on this article.