landslide forecasting and factors influencing predictability
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ID: 155929
2016
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Abstract
Forecasting a catastrophic collapse is a key element in landslide risk
reduction, but it is also a very difficult task owing to the scientific
difficulties in predicting a complex natural event and also to the severe
social repercussions caused by a false or missed alarm. A prediction is
always affected by a certain error; however, when this error can imply
evacuations or other severe consequences a high reliability in the forecast
is, at least, desirable.
In order to increase the confidence of predictions, a new methodology is presented here. In contrast to traditional approaches, this methodology iteratively applies several forecasting methods based on displacement data and, thanks to an innovative data representation, gives a valuation of the reliability of the prediction. This approach has been employed to back-analyse 15 landslide collapses. By introducing a predictability index, this study also contributes to the understanding of how geology and other factors influence the possibility of forecasting a slope failure. The results showed how kinematics, and all the factors influencing it, such as geomechanics, rainfall and other external agents, are key concerning landslide predictability.
In order to increase the confidence of predictions, a new methodology is presented here. In contrast to traditional approaches, this methodology iteratively applies several forecasting methods based on displacement data and, thanks to an innovative data representation, gives a valuation of the reliability of the prediction. This approach has been employed to back-analyse 15 landslide collapses. By introducing a predictability index, this study also contributes to the understanding of how geology and other factors influence the possibility of forecasting a slope failure. The results showed how kinematics, and all the factors influencing it, such as geomechanics, rainfall and other external agents, are key concerning landslide predictability.
| Reference Key |
intrieri2016naturallandslide
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|---|---|
| Authors | ;E. Intrieri;G. Gigli |
| Journal | anziam journal |
| Year | 2016 |
| DOI |
10.5194/nhess-16-2501-2016
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| URL | |
| Keywords |
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