avaliação de risco em investimentos florestais evaluation of risk in investments forestry
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2011
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Abstract
<div>A avaliação econômica de projetos de investimentos é comumente utilizada como forma de buscar parâmetros indicativos de sua viabilidade. Entretanto, as condições de incertezas em relação ao ambiente econômico dificultam o processo de tomada de decisão. No caso dos plantios florestais, a complexidade é ainda maior em função do alto tempo de retorno do investimento. Uma das alternativas que pode ser utilizada pelos investidores é a transformação das incertezas em risco. Assim, o objetivo do artigo é verificar a adequação do emprego do Método de Monte Carlo (MMC) na avaliação do risco em plantios florestais de <em>Pinus </em>spp. O procedimento consiste na simulação da Taxa Interna de Retorno (TIR) e do Valor Presente Líquido (VPL) do projeto, a partir da simulação de variáveis previamente selecionadas no fluxo de caixa. O método mostrou-se eficiente na análise de risco de plantios florestais. </div>
<div>Economic evaluation of investment projects of is usually used as a form to search for parameters that are indicative of its viability. However, a condition of uncertainty in relation to the economic environment makes it difficult in order to help the process of decision making. In the case of the forest activities, the complexity is still bigger in function of the long time required for the return of the investment. One of the alternatives that can be used by the investors is the transformation of uncertainty into risk. Thus, the objective of the article is to verify the adequacy of the Monte Carlo Method (MMC) in the risk evaluation of in forest activities with Pinus spp. The procedure consists of the simulation of the Internal Tax of Return (ITR) and of Net Present Value (NPV) of the project, from the simulation of variables previously selected in the cash flow. The method revealed efficient in the risk analysis of forest activities. </div>
<div>Economic evaluation of investment projects of is usually used as a form to search for parameters that are indicative of its viability. However, a condition of uncertainty in relation to the economic environment makes it difficult in order to help the process of decision making. In the case of the forest activities, the complexity is still bigger in function of the long time required for the return of the investment. One of the alternatives that can be used by the investors is the transformation of uncertainty into risk. Thus, the objective of the article is to verify the adequacy of the Monte Carlo Method (MMC) in the risk evaluation of in forest activities with Pinus spp. The procedure consists of the simulation of the Internal Tax of Return (ITR) and of Net Present Value (NPV) of the project, from the simulation of variables previously selected in the cash flow. The method revealed efficient in the risk analysis of forest activities. </div>
| Reference Key |
simioni2011pesquisaavaliao
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|---|---|
| Authors | ;Flávio José Simioni;Vitor Afonso Hoeflich |
| Journal | journal of ict research and applications |
| Year | 2011 |
| DOI |
10.4336/2012.pfb.52.79
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| URL | |
| Keywords | Keywords not found |
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