A Poisson Autoregressive Model to Understand COVID-19 Contagion Dynamics

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ID: 114841
2020
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Abstract
We present a statistical model which can be employed to understand the contagion dynamics of the COVID-19, which can heavily impact health, economics and finance. The model is a Poisson autoregression of the daily new observed cases, and can reveal whether contagion has a trend, and where is each country on that trend. Model results are exemplified from some observed series.
Reference Key
agosto2020risksa Use this key to autocite in the manuscript while using SciMatic Manuscript Manager or Thesis Manager
Authors Arianna Agosto;Paolo Giudici;Agosto, Arianna;Giudici, Paolo;
Journal risks
Year 2020
DOI
10.3390/risks8030077
URL
https://www.mdpi.com/2227-9091/8/3/77/htm
Keywords
contagion poisson autoregressive models predictive monitoring

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