Modelling the Evolution of COVID-19 in High-Incidence European Countries and Regions: Estimated Number of Infections and Impact of Past and Future Intervention Measures

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ID: 112274
2020
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Abstract
A previously developed mechanistic model of COVID-19 transmission has been adapted and applied here to study the evolution of the disease and the effect of intervention measures in some European countries and territories where the disease has had a major impact. A clear impact of the major intervention measures on the reproduction number (Rt) has been found in all studied countries and territories, as already suggested by the drop in the number of deaths over time. Interestingly, the impact of such major intervention measures seems to be the same in most of these countries. The model has also provided realistic estimates of the total number of infections, active cases and future outcomes. While the predictive capabilities of the model are much more uncertain before the peak of the outbreak, we could still reliably predict the evolution of the disease after a major intervention by assuming the subsequent reproduction number from the current study. A greater challenge is to foresee the long-term impact of softer intervention measures, but this model can estimate the outcome of different scenarios and help to plan changes for the implementation of control measures in a given country or region.
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fernández-recio2020journalmodelling Use this key to autocite in the manuscript while using SciMatic Manuscript Manager or Thesis Manager
Authors Juan Fernández-Recio;Fernández-Recio, Juan;
Journal journal of clinical medicine
Year 2020
DOI
10.3390/jcm9061825
URL
https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0383/9/6/1825
Keywords
Epidemiology virus covid-19 disease transmission model intervention measures

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