Temperature Decreases Spread Parameters of the New Covid-19 Case Dynamics.

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ID: 109047
2020
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Abstract
(1) Background: The virulence of coronavirus diseases due to viruses like SARS-CoV or MERS-CoV decreases in humid and hot weather. The putative temperature dependence of infectivity by the new coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 or covid-19 has a high predictive medical interest. (2) Methods: External temperature and new covid-19 cases in 21 countries and in the French administrative regions were collected from public data. Associations between epidemiological parameters of the new case dynamics and temperature were examined using an ARIMA model. (3) Results: We show that, in the first stages of the epidemic, the velocity of contagion decreases with country- or region-wise temperature. (4) Conclusions: Results indicate that high temperatures diminish initial contagion rates, but seasonal temperature effects at later stages of the epidemy remain questionable. Confinement policies and other eviction rules should account for climatological heterogeneities, in order to adapt the public health decisions to possible geographic or seasonal gradients.
Reference Key
demongeot2020temperaturebiology Use this key to autocite in the manuscript while using SciMatic Manuscript Manager or Thesis Manager
Authors Demongeot, Jacques;Flet-Berliac, Yannis;Seligmann, Hervé;
Journal Biology
Year 2020
DOI
E94
URL
https://www.mdpi.com/2079-7737/9/5/94
Keywords
temperature sensitivity covid-19 heat inhibition weather-dependent virulence

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