Development and comparison of forecast models of hand-foot-mouth disease with meteorological factors.

Clicks: 355
ID: 69634
2019
Article Quality & Performance Metrics
Overall Quality
Not rated
Combines reader engagement with the AI quality analysis. This article has not been analysed, so there is no overall score — reader engagement is measured and shown alongside.
AI Quality Assessment
Not analyzed
Readership in this journal
Steady

Ranked #234 of 1,628 articles by views in Scientific reports

Most read Least read

Bar heights use a square-root scale. Only the 120 most-read articles are drawn; the journal has 1,628 in total.

Mint this article as an NFT
Not yet minted

Create a permanent, verifiable on-chain record of this article on the Scimatic Network. The NFT is held in your Journament account, and you can withdraw it to your own wallet at any time.

5 SUSD one-off · no wallet required
Sign in to mint
Abstract
Hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) is an acute intestinal virus infectious disease which is one of major public health problems in mainland China. Previous studies indicated that HFMD was significantly influenced by climatic factors, but the associated factors were different in different areas and few study on HFMD forecast models was conducted. Here, we analyzed epidemiological characteristics of HFMD in Yiwu City, Zhejiang Province and constructed three forecast models. Overall, a total of 32554 HFMD cases were reported and 12 cases deceased in Yiwu City, Zhejiang Province. The incidence of HFMD peaked every other year and the curve of HFMD incidence had an approximately W-shape. The majority of HFMD cases were children and 95.76% cases aged ≤5 years old from 2008 to 2016. Furthermore, we constructed and compared three forecast models using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, negative binomial regression model (NBM), and quasi-Poisson generalized additive model (GAM). All the three models had high agreements between predicted values and observed values, while GAM fitted best. The exposure-response curve of monthly mean temperature and HFMD was approximately V-shaped. Our study explored epidemiological characteristics of HFMD in Yiwu City and provided accurate methods for early warning which would be great importance for the control and prevention of HFMD.
Reference Key
fu2019developmentscientific Use this key to autocite in the manuscript while using SciMatic Manuscript Manager or Thesis Manager
Authors Fu, Tao;Chen, Ting;Dong, Zhen-Bin;Luo, Shu-Ying;Miao, Ziping;Song, Xiu-Ping;Huang, Ru-Ting;Sun, Ji-Min;
Journal Scientific reports
Year 2019
DOI
10.1038/s41598-019-52044-5
URL
Keywords
adolescence youth hiv/aids linkage-to-care structural change

Citations

No citations found. To add a citation, contact the admin at info@scimatic.org

Comments

No comments yet. Be the first to comment on this article.