Emergence of Anthropogenic Signals in the Ocean Carbon Cycle.

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ID: 49167
2019
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Abstract
Attribution of anthropogenically-forced trends in the climate system requires understanding when and how such signals will emerge from natural variability. We apply time-of-emergence diagnostics to a Large Ensemble of an Earth System Model, providing both a conceptual framework for interpreting the detectability of anthropogenic impacts in the ocean carbon cycle and observational sampling strategies required to achieve detection. We find emergence timescales ranging from under a decade to over a century, a consequence of the time-lag between chemical and radiative impacts of rising atmospheric CO on the ocean. Processes sensitive to carbonate-chemical changes emerge rapidly, such as impacts of acidification on the calcium-carbonate pump (10 years for the globally-integrated signal, 9-18 years regionally-integrated), and the invasion flux of anthropogenic CO into the ocean (14 globally, 13-26 regionally). Processes sensitive to the ocean's physical state, such as the soft-tissue pump, which depends on nutrients supplied through circulation, emerge decades later (23 globally, 27-85 regionally).
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schlunegger2019emergencenature Use this key to autocite in the manuscript while using SciMatic Manuscript Manager or Thesis Manager
Authors Schlunegger, Sarah;Rodgers, Keith B;Sarmiento, Jorge L;Frölicher, Thomas L;Dunne, John P;Ishii, Masao;Slater, Richard;
Journal nature climate change
Year 2019
DOI
10.1038/s41558-019-0553-2
URL
Keywords
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