Future projections of record-breaking sea surface temperature and cyanobacteria bloom events in the Baltic Sea.

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2019
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Abstract
Aiming to inform both marine management and the public, coupled environmental-climate scenario simulations for the future Baltic Sea are analyzed. The projections are performed under two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios (medium and high-end) and three nutrient load scenarios spanning the range of plausible socio-economic pathways. Assuming an optimistic scenario with perfect implementation of the Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP), the projections suggest that the achievement of Good Environmental Status will take at least a few more decades. However, for the perception of the attractiveness of beach recreational sites, extreme events such as tropical nights, record-breaking sea surface temperature (SST), and cyanobacteria blooms may be more important than mean ecosystem indicators. Our projections suggest that the incidence of record-breaking summer SSTs will increase significantly. Under the BSAP, record-breaking cyanobacteria blooms will no longer occur in the future, but may reappear at the end of the century in a business-as-usual nutrient load scenario.
Reference Key
meier2019futureambio Use this key to autocite in the manuscript while using SciMatic Manuscript Manager or Thesis Manager
Authors Meier, H E Markus;Dieterich, Christian;Eilola, Kari;Gröger, Matthias;Höglund, Anders;Radtke, Hagen;Saraiva, Sofia;Wåhlström, Iréne;
Journal ambio
Year 2019
DOI
10.1007/s13280-019-01235-5
URL
Keywords
climate change sea surface temperature cyanobacteria numerical modeling coastal seas extremes

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