Comparing the Impact of Cigarette Excise Taxes of Varying Size on Cigarette Sales and Prices in Pennsylvania and Ohio

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ID: 332636
2026
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Abstract
ABSTRACT Introduction This study examined the effects of two state cigarette excise tax increases in Ohio ($0.35) and Pennsylvania ($1.00) on cigarette prices and per-capita cigarette sales and assessed how tax magnitude relates to pass-through and sales changes. Methods Primary analyses used annual state-level Tax Burden on Tobacco data from 2008-2019 to estimate changes in average cigarette price per pack and per-capita cigarette sales using synthetic difference-in-differences (SDID) models, comparing each state with matched comparison states. We calculated inflation-adjusted tax pass-through rates as the change in price divided by the change in tax. Results Cigarette prices increased $1.27 (95% CI: 1.07 to 1.47; p < 0.001) in Pennsylvania and $0.33 (95% CI: 0.14 to 0.52; p < 0.001) in Ohio, corresponding to pass-through rates of 120% and 87%, respectively. Per-capita cigarette sales in Pennsylvania decreased by 6.18 packs (95% CI: -11.44 to -0.93; p = 0.02), or 14.1%. In Ohio, we did not find a significant decrease in per-capita sales (ATT = -2.05 packs; 95% CI: -6.15 to 2.04; p = 0.33). Conclusions Larger excise tax increases may be more likely to generate detectable reductions in tax-paid cigarette sales, potentially through greater price increases and/or higher pass-through. Excise taxes remain a core tobacco control tool, but additional rigorous evaluations are needed to determine the size and design of tax increases most likely to produce meaningful reductions in cigarette purchasing and use. Implications This study employed quasi-experimental methods to compare cigarette tax increases of different magnitudes across two similar states, finding that Pennsylvania’s $1.00 tax increase was associated with a large price increase (more than 100% pass-through) and a significant decline in tax-paid cigarette sales. In contrast, Ohio’s $0.35 increase was associated with a smaller price increase and inconclusive evidence of a sustained reduction in sales. These findings indicate that higher cigarette excise taxes may be more likely to yield measurable reductions in cigarette purchasing. Accordingly, policymakers should account for tax magnitude and anticipated pass-through when setting rates to maximize public health gains.
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openalex_W7222831887 Use this key to autocite in the manuscript while using SciMatic Manuscript Manager or Thesis Manager
Authors Adrian J Ashley, Justin S. White, Jennifer Cornacchione Ross, Paul R. Shafer
Journal nicotine & tobacco research : official journal of the society for research on nicotine and tobacco
Year 2026
DOI
10.1093/ntr/ntag227
URL
https://doi.org/10.1093/ntr/ntag227
Keywords Keywords not found

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