Low apparent survival of adults and high reproductive rates in a steeply declining aerial insectivore breeding in boreal Alaska

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ID: 329372
2026
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Abstract
Abstract Demographic rates linked to survival and reproduction can help identify factors limiting population growth of vulnerable species. We estimated adult apparent survival and daily nest survival for a steeply declining aerial insectivore, Contopus cooperi (Olive-sided Flycatcher). From 2013 to 2018 we conducted a mark–recapture and nest monitoring study at 3 study areas (Anchorage, Fairbanks, and Tetlin) in boreal Alaska, USA. We tested a suite of covariates including sex, region, year, body mass, and cool and wet weather on adult apparent survival. Mean apparent survival of 113 monitored individuals was 0.35 (95% CI: 0.26 to 0.45). Adults captured in Anchorage had higher apparent survival than those captured in Fairbanks (P (β > 0 |data) = 95%) and survival increased with body mass (91%). There was weak evidence for higher apparent survival in individuals captured earlier in the study (P (β < 0|data) = 82%) and males (80%). Unlike adult survival, mean daily nest survival in our study was high compared to other studies, with 71% of broods surviving the 34-day incubation and nestling phase to fledging. Nest survival rates were lower in Tetlin than in Fairbanks (P (β < 0|data) ≥ 99%) and declined with the number of cool days (98%) and wet days (96%) during the nestling phase. The low adult survival rates observed in this study may be contributing to population declines for this species, and future research is needed to identify specific threats to adult survival and suitable conservation actions.
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Authors Katherine S. Christie, Julie C. Hagelin, Eva K Allaby, Helen E. Chmura, Kristin A DeGroot, James A Johnson, Shelby McCahon
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Journal Ornithological Applications
Year 2026
DOI
10.1093/ornithapp/duag087
URL
https://doi.org/10.1093/ornithapp/duag087
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