Historical Trends of Market Coverage and Competition of Various Wood Products in Michigan

Abstract This study examines historical trends in market coverage, competition hotspots, and merchantable volume for hardwood and softwood sawlogs, pulpwood, and biomass chips and residues from 1985 to 2023. Hardwood and softwood sawlog markets expanded over the study period, with notable increases between 2003 and 2018: hardwood merchantable volume rose from 48.04 to 63.05 million MBF, and softwood increased from 28.35 to 36.44 million MBF. Although the total number of sawlog processors declined, capacity became increasingly concentrated in the largest mills enabling production to remain stable. Pulpwood markets also expanded over time, with market coverage rising from 10.04 million acres (1985) to 20.08 million acres (2018). However, declining facility numbers and reduced processing capacity weakened pulp markets by 2018, despite the entry of large pulp users, including Arauco and Billerud in 2023. Biomass market coverage increased sharply from 0.48 million acres in 1985 to 15.53 million acres in 2018, with merchantable volume rising from 16.59 million tons in 2005 to 30.84 million tons in 2018. Overall, wood product market coverage and processing capacity increased over the study period, except for pulp, mainly through the concentration of large mills located near population centers and continued forest growth. These findings highlight the need for targeted policy interventions to sustain rural wood product markets, support private landowners with fewer than two buyers competing for their timber, and guide investment in Michigan's evolving forest-based economy.