Geopolitical Integration vs. fragmentation: the economic geography of disparities in Europe

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ID: 320931
2026
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Abstract
Abstract Rising geopolitical tensions and emerging skepticism against globalization cast doubt on the future evolution of European regional economic growth. We simulate regional GDP growth rates for all NUTS2 regions in the EU27+UK for the period 2021–2035, using the MASST5 model, in two extreme scenarios; the first, termed “Cohesive EU in an Integrated World”; the second, labeled “Nationalistic EU in a Fragmented World”. Results document substantial spatial heterogeneity in the outcomes of the two scenarios, with Integration leading to superior economic performance but at the cost of increasing regional disparities triggered by higher growth opportunities for national champions.
Reference Key
openalex_W7168260933 Use this key to autocite in the manuscript while using SciMatic Manuscript Manager or Thesis Manager
Authors Roberta Capello, Andrea Caragliu, Roberto Dellisanti
Journal journal of economic geography
Year 2026
DOI
10.1093/jeg/lbag046
URL
https://doi.org/10.1093/jeg/lbag046
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